Day-to-Day Murders in the nation Decline Over a Third In President Sheinbaum, Per Official Data
The mean number of per-day killings monthly in the country has fallen by more than a third since Head of State Claudia Sheinbaum began her term, according to fresh official data. However, security experts have advised that murder numbers might not point to enhanced national security.
Notable Drop in Per-Day Figures
Officials reported an average of nearly 55 homicides a day in the month of November compared with almost 87 when Claudia Sheinbaum took the presidency in September of last year. This information was delivered by the head of the country’s national safety system, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the leader's regular news conference on Tuesday.
“The outcome in homicides that we have seen over these months is very important,” Sheinbaum stated, noting that the previous month the lowest figure of murders were documented for any November in the last decade.
Recent Background and Official Plan
Fierce organized crime internal conflicts, coupled with the government’s highly military campaigns to take on the cartels, have caused Mexico’s homicide rate soar in recent times. The rate hit a record high of 36,773 killings in 2020, according to the nation's official data agency.
That gave Mexico a murder figure more than four times higher than that of the United States. Since then, homicides have been on the decrease, declining to 33,550 in the last calendar year. Sheinbaum has linked her public safety approach for an apparently steeper drop in killings this year.
At a media briefing in August, the Mexican leader said: “There is a plan, there is monitoring of the plan, and we have specific tracking town by town in some cases. The plan functions. And we have to keep working at it each day.”
The central components of the President's security plan involve:
- Strengthening Mexico’s domestic security force.
- Enhancing information gathering and investigative efforts.
- Enhanced cooperation between various authorities.
Expert Skepticism and Statistical Concerns
However, security researchers warned that relying on homicide data to draw a conclusion of pacification was flawed. This is especially true in light of the increase in other crimes such as forced disappearances.
“It would be excellent news if this was a reduction, but I think we shouldn't just concentrate on the homicide numbers and conclude: ‘Oh well, good,’” stated Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an authority on Mexican organised crime. “I would be cautiously hopeful.”
According to the public policy research thinktank Mexico Evalúa, homicides in total dropped by over 20% in the initial 10 months of this year relative to the same timeframe last year. But, disappearances have gone up by 15% and in certain states have surged by as much as 200%.
“Data on homicides is not reliable for assessing the reality of public insecurity,” stated Armando Vargas, a safety analyst at Mexico Evalúa. “Firstly, we have law enforcement and prosecutors who do not have the resources or the will to correctly identify and categorize remains. Second, organised [criminals] … have the capability to mask violent acts through disappearances.”
Vargas noted that using month-to-month means of daily killings was similarly concerning because it could mask days when there were especially high levels of killings.
“Relying on the daily average makes spikes of violence less visible,” he stated.
Arrests and Seizures as Metrics of Success
An area where the government can cite the success of its safety plan is on arrests and confiscations. Almost 40,000 individuals were detained between October 2024 and this past November for major crimes, according to government figures. More than 20,000 weapons were seized and 311 tons of drugs seized.
“Donald Trump cannot accuse President Sheinbaum of doing nothing, because actually she is accomplishing a lot with these thousands of detentions, many thousands of confiscations, and all the tactical degrading of organised crime. It’s highly politically profitable,” said Vargas.
Ongoing Violence and Public Anger
Yet notwithstanding these efforts, Mexico remains plagued by high bloodshed, with a number of regions in the grip of cartel-driven conflict. In the previous month there was a high-profile assassination of a popular mayor in the region of Michoacan, one of 10 mayors assassinated in the last 12 months.
A short time after, thousands of youth protested in the capital and throughout the nation to show their outrage at graft and cartel violence.
“The government frames [data] in a manner to create a story of improvement. From a political standpoint it’s very successful, socially it’s very problematic,” Vargas concluded.
