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Plug-in hybrid cars produce almost 5x more global warming emissions than official data show, as per a new report.

Growing Discrepancy In Official and Actual CO2 Output

Data shows that PHEVs emit just one-fifth lower CO₂ than traditional gas and diesel vehicles, based on analysis carried out by a advocacy group. This differs sharply with lab estimates, which assumed a 75% decrease in pollution.

Researchers studied data from in-vehicle fuel consumption monitors of 800,000 cars sold in the EU between 2021 and 2023. They discovered that actual CO₂ emissions from PHEVs in 2023 were nearly five times higher than official estimates, increased from 3.5 times in 2021.

“Real-world emissions are increasing, while official emissions are decreasing,” stated a senior researcher participating in the report. “That gap is growing and poses a significant issue. As a result, PHEVs emit nearly as much as petrol cars.”

Key Reasons Driving the Emissions Gap

Analysts linked the majority of the gap to inflated estimates of the “utility factor” – the percentage of miles travelled in electric mode relative to overall distance. The team determined that just a quarter of travel was done in EV mode, whereas official assumptions assumed 84%.

Even, when running in electric mode, pollution amounts were significantly higher than official projections. This occurred because EV motors were not strong enough to function alone, leading to combustion motors using gasoline for almost a third of the distance completed in EV mode.

Regulatory and Financial Consequences

According to estimates, the underestimation of PHEV CO2 output allowed several major carmaker groups to escape over €5bn in penalties between 2021 and 2023, by artificially easing compliance with European Union average fleet CO₂ standards.

Additionally, owners of PHEVs would pay approximately €500 extra annually in running expenses than is estimated under lab conditions.

“The strong statements that manufacturers often promote about their PHEV cars are obviously far from the mark,” commented a transport analyst. “Buyers are being duped into believing that by buying a PHEV, they are benefiting the planet and saving money. In reality, PHEVs are only slightly better than standard gas and diesel cars in terms of energy consumption, CO₂ emissions, and operating expenses.”

Political Discussion and Automotive Pressure

Hybrid cars have lately been brought back into political discussions as automakers have pressed the EU to weaken CO₂ standards. A planned prohibition on sales of new internal combustion vehicles in 2035 has faced intense pressure from the automotive industry and resistance from member states with large automotive industries.

Several high-level politicians have proposed plug-in hybrids as a possible “flexibility” solution to introduce in the regulation.

An external energy economics specialist, who was unaffiliated with the study, called the analysis a “highly valuable addition” after years in which parts of the car sector argued there was insufficient data to accurately assess actual emissions.

“These findings demonstrate, without question, that the difference in lab and actual PHEV energy use and CO₂ output is much, much larger than for gasoline or conventional vehicles,” the expert said. “Any policy adjustments regarding PHEVs should be made with utmost care and in the light of this evidence.”