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The leader of Colombia, Gustavo Petro, is embarking on a high-stakes trip to Washington to meet US President Donald Trump. This constitutes the initial in-person encounter for the two leaders after months of escalating tensions and heated rhetoric.

Topics for Discussion

The situation in Venezuela, drug trafficking, energy, security, and American military actions on suspected narco-boats are expected to be high on the list of topics when they meet at the White House on the scheduled day.

A History of Tensions

Although the two men were cordial in a phone call after a recent US military operation, Petro has subsequently stated he feels there is a "real threat" of armed intervention targeting Colombia. Trump, in turn, has previously remarked that a such action in Colombia "sounds good".

Tuesday's meeting comes after an extended period of the two leaders exchanging criticisms. Petro has often criticised ongoing US attacks on alleged drugs boats in the regional waters, as well as the US administration's border policies.

"He changed his attitude," Trump reportedly stating ahead of the Washington meeting.

Areas of Disagreement

On the US side, Trump has charged Petro's administration of not doing enough to halt the flow of cocaine heading north, and has pledged to extend strikes to land targets throughout the area.

But, the acrimony appeared to dissipate after a "polite" phone call involving the two presidents, which a Colombian official later characterized as an complete reversal "from both sides".

Diplomatic Bridge

Per insiders, one man – Rand Paul – was pivotal in setting up the dialogue. "I believe in diplomacy and I thought our relations were going in the wrong direction," the lawmaker was quoted as saying. "My hope is for our relationship to improve."

Regional Stability and the Guerrilla Group

Ahead of the visit, Colombian indicated that much of the conversation would focus on shared US and Colombian worries over security in the neighboring country, with which Colombia shares an long border.

A significant portion of that border is under the sway of the ELN. This Colombian guerrilla group, founded in the 1960s, dominates narco-trade, racketeering, contraband, and unlawful extraction in frontier regions and allegedly collaborates with compromised officials within the Venezuelan government.

For Trump, addressing the challenge of the ELN will be crucial to ensuring safety for US firms involved in Venezuela's energy sector. Analysts point out that the ELN has the potential to spoil economic ambitions by targeting foreign investors and employees, as it has previously done in Colombia.

Drug War Collaboration

An similarly urgent issue for the two presidents will be the struggle against drug trafficking from Colombia, the world's largest producer of the narcotic. In November, Petro instituted a halt on intelligence sharing with US security agencies after Trump's threats.

The US has, in turn, formally designated Colombia as a country that has "not met its obligations" in combating the narcotics trade. It has also imposed restrictions on figures in Petro's government, encompassing the leader and his relatives.

"Combating the cocaine trade is impossible without Colombia," stated a regional security expert. "Any move to sever Colombian intelligence could also undermine all enforcement efforts."

Possible Scenarios

But even with multiple areas for collaboration, the potential for a clash remains. "Trump loves you one day, dislikes you the next day," observed a ex-official. "My suspicion is that Petro will walk in with some concessions to avoid Trump's ire... But one never knows."

For the Colombian leader, even a difficult encounter could be beneficial. His time in office concludes in the coming months, and the results of the meeting could influence the political future of his chosen candidate.

"In some ways, he's kind of in a win-win position," noted a Latin American studies professor. "If it goes well takes the air out of opposition arguments... If it doesn't, he's protecting Colombian interests. He could turn that in his favour."