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Usually, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year trophy adheres to a simple script. It often functions as a form of apology. Our apologies we got wrong your franchise in our preseason projections.

In theory, it's a clear-cut trajectory: the coach who orchestrated the biggest resurgence is handed the award. However, it sparks an annual debate about preseason outlooks and whether we're truly honoring excellent coaching or just the greatest upset.

Yet this year's field is profoundly unique. The group of candidates is exceptionally strong. It has been the season of turnarounds. The NFL has been messy, with reigning division winners fading and recent underperformers rising together. During an ordinary season, a coach leading the his team to the top of the AFC would make him the overwhelming favorite. But in such a chaotic and thrilling year, he's facing five other exceptional candidates.

This is how the hypothetical vote could be structured.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors adore quarterbacks. They always have. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. If you fix a franchise QB, you're well on your way to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach didn't merely corrected Caleb Williams; he's freed him. Given a proper environment, Williams has been afforded the opportunity to display his otherworldly ability. Since Week 9, the Chicago offense rank number four in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a brief surge – it's sustained dominance. Under Johnson, the quarterback has become more confident, less reckless, and has willingly submitted to the system rather than going rogue. It is an attack built entirely in Johnson's image: a bully-ball ground attack, a heavy dose of play-action passes and a innovative aerial game that springs wide-open targets all over the field. The QB has thrived. And when openings haven't been available, he's been capable to spin magic from nothing.

The coach arrived to Chicago with a clear offensive philosophy. Almost every gamble – rebuilding the trenches, highlighting the pass-catchers, transforming the QB into a timing-based passer – has paid off. That's uncommon for a rookie skipper. And it's rarer still for a leader who walked into the organization with the immense expectations Johnson did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the hottest name on the coaching carousel. However when it comes to selecting a leader, there are no guarantees. Remarkably, he has lived up to expectations – and even exceeded them. He's proven not only to be a scheme dork but the type of leader that can inject fresh energy into an organization.

During a normal year, Johnson would be the runaway choice. Yet the current is not a typical campaign!

The area where his case runs a bit into trouble is on defense. The Bears presently sit 25th in defensive success rate. They are relying on turnovers, and takeaways are famously fickle. Coaches can focus on creating turnovers, but nobody can ensure it. Johnson is on the list because the offense is real. He's not higher because luck is doing too much of the defensive heavy lifting. If not for a few bounces of the ball, the Bears would be several wins behind. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the foundation is in place for sustained success. But Johnson falls just short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar situation to Johnson. He's a fellow first-time leader who has orchestrated a rapid turnaround. During the stretch run of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the finest all-around ball of his career. And he's also overseen the remaking of a defensive unit that now sits at fifth in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more notably, he has excelled at the off-field stuff, which wasn't a certainty following his initial public appearances and some of his preseason moves.

Coen took over Jacksonville with an uncommonly inexperienced coaching staff. In contrast to Johnson, who packed their staff with the perfect staff mix of youth and veteran savvy, Coen bet on first-timers. Starting with the leader on down to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jags are stocked with rookies. That kind of approach is intriguing on paper, but often collapses in reality – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everyone is figuring out a new job on the fly. Yet Coen has managed to bring the entire group and all elements together.

After an early hot beginning, there was a possibility that the season would go off the track. A mid-year setback had the team wobbling again. That's usually when leaders panic and change too much. Coen did not. Instead, he streamlined the approach. The offense stopped chasing home-run answers and started hunting sustainable ones. Coen recentered the attack around his playmakers and the ground attack, and asked his QB to use his legs more.

The results are clear. The Jaguars have won seven games in a row and will be the conference's No 3 playoff seed. Coen gets the slightest knock in the rankings because he inherited a talented team, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, 13-3

Each Strong of the Year argument has a pivotal moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback move.

Moving on from a veteran, signing a new signal-caller and pairing him with an innovative play-caller could have ended the season in the early weeks. Rather, it shaped it. By the middle point of the season, the acquisition was an MVP candidate. He has regressed after that hot streak, slipping to 23rd in EPA per pass attempt over the second half of the season, placing him only a single spot ahead of peers.

Still